The Importance Of Level Advantage 2.0

by JR Cook - 8 years ago     show comments

Back in June, shortly after the game was released, I wrote an article entitled The Importance of Level Advantage. That article focused on how often teams won when they were ahead at certain critical points through out the game. If you would like to read the full article you can find it here, but suffice to say the result was that teams that hit level 4, 10, and 20 first won an overwhelming majority of the time.

A month ago we received the Cho’gall patch, which in addition to a cool two headed ogre also included scaling changes and longer early game respawn timers. These changes were primarily aimed at combating the problem of snowballing. Now that we have had some time to see these changes in action, I thought it would be interesting to take another look at level advantage and the win percentages when teams are ahead at these various key points during the game.

Much like the first article, I looked at approximately 100 games from players of varying skill levels. Since we are primarily interested in the impact of the scaling changes, all of these games were playing within the last 30 days. With the foundation set, let’s dive into the numbers.

The team that reaches level 4 first wins 50.5% of the time

Previously this number was at 66 percent, so already it would appear that the changes to combat snowballing are having the desired affect. It shouldn’t be a surprise that this number is fairly even. While level 4 is when teams gain their first additional talent, it is often only a few seconds before the other team also hits level 4, so it is hard to really take advantage of getting there first. That being said, there is still value in reaching level 4 first so soaking experience early is still key.

The team that reaches level 10 first wins 62.6% of the time

Again, this number has gone down dramatically. 62 percent is still a solid advantage, but previously this number was a whopping 79 percent, which is crazy considering that teams often hit level 1o around the six minute mark. Again, yet another example that the changes to prevent snowballing are showing good results.

I mentioned that I looked at games from both the competitive scene and recreational players. While there wasn’t much of a difference between the win rates of these two groups at level 4, there was a fairly significant difference here at level 10. In games featuring top players, the level 10 win rate was 68.2 percent. In games featuring more average players, it was only 58 percent. If I had to hazard a guess for why the win rate is so much higher in games featuring the best players, I would say it is because they do a better job of capitalizing on the advantage that reaching level 10 first provides. To put it another way, when they hit level 10 first they DO SOMETHING with it! They look to engage in a team fight, they try to catch people out of position, they push a lane hard. They don’t hearth back because they are half mana, they don’t all just go back to their lanes, they don’t go try and solo a merc camp. Learn from this, and when your team hits level 10 first looks for ways to aggressively take advantage of it. You are ahead, this is your chance to get more ahead!

The team that reaches level 20 first wins 85.9% of the time

While Heroes is a game of comebacks, scaling changes or not, it is hard to come back after level 20 (previously this number was 87%). When you are ahead after level 20 the game is yours to win. Don’t screw it up. If a team loses after being ahead at level 20 it is usually because of a full team wipe. This could be the result of great play by their opponents, but more often than not it is due to poor decision making on their part.

Much like level 10, you should be looking for ways to keep applying pressure once you reach level 20. This is a fine line, because you want to stay aggressive, but at the same time you don’t want to be so aggressive that you put your team in position to throw the game. This means first and foremost staying alive. If things start to go south and your team loses a Hero or two, don’t make it worse by needlessly dying as well. Fall back, and do what you can safely do while you wait for your dead teammates to respawn. Don’t be hardheaded and die too because you can’t recognize when a fight has been lost. This is a mistake I see players make all too often. Some players are simply don’t know how, or when, to retreat and they turn what should be a small setback into a completely lost game. With 60+ second respawn timers a full team wipe will usually give your opponent enough time to push for the win uncontested.

It is interesting to see how things have changed in just a few months time.

Personally, I think the game feels more balanced, and these numbers would seem to back that up. The longer respawn timers in the early game feel significant, and teams can more easily capitalize on early game takedowns. Games also appear to be more tightly contested in the early to mid game. Even when a team is ahead, they are ahead by less. You just don’t see those roflstomp games anymore where one team is level 10 while the other is still at level 7. Now you have to play well to win. You can’t just cruise to victory because your team jumped out to an early two level lead.

I think the game is in a good place right now, and with Phase One of the new matchmaking system being rolled out, it is only going to get better.

Have fun and I’ll see you in the Nexus.